Module 2 – SLP

Linear Regression and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecasting

Scenario: You are a consultant for the Diligent
Consulting Group (DCG). You have completed the first assignment,
developing and testing a forecasting method that uses Linear Regression
(LR) techniques (Module 2 Case). However, the consulting manager at DCG
wants to try a different forecasting method as well. Now you decide to
try Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) to forecast sales.

Using this Excel template: Data chart for BUS520 SLP 2, do the following:

Calculate the MAPE for Year 2 Linear Regression forecast (use the first spreadsheet tab labeled “Year 2 Forecast – MAPE”).

Calculate forecasted sales for Year 2 using SES (use the second spreadsheet tab labeled “SES – MAPE”). Use 0.15 and 0.90 alphas.

Compare the MAPE calculated for the LR forecast (#1 above) with the MAPEs calculated using SES.

Then write a report to your boss in which you discuss the results
obtained above. Using calculated MAPE values, make a recommendation
concerning which method appears to be more accurate for the Year 2 data:
SES or Linear Regression.

SLP Assignment Expectations

Analysis

Conduct accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel. You may also check the following link for your reference: https://support.office.com/en-US/article/data-analysis-7e71735c-c471-47e1-84ef-a8c23dc3098b

Written Report

• Length requirements: 2 – 3 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages). NOTE: You must submit 2 – 3 pages of written discussion and analysis. This means that you should avoid use of tables and charts as “space fillers.”
• Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.
• Complete a written analysis that supports your Excel analysis,
  discussing the assumptions, rationale, and logic used to complete your
  SES forecast.
• Give complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s) relating to whether LR or SES is more accurate in predicting sales.
• Write clearly, simply, and logically. Use double-spaced, black Verdana or Times Roman font in 12 pt. type size.
• Have an introduction at the beginning to introduce the topics and use keywords as headings to organize the report.
• Avoid redundancy and general statements such as “All organizations exist to make a profit.” Make every sentence count.
• Paraphrase the facts using your own words and ideas, employing
  quotes sparingly. Quotes, if absolutely necessary, should rarely exceed
  five words.
• Upload both your written report and Excel file to the SLP 2 Dropbox .

1.

Develop an initial literature review draft. The literature review draft should be based on at least 10 to 12 peer-reviewed original sources within the past five years. Do not include book sources, secondary summary sources, or sources older than five years, unless the source is a peer-reviewed, original, seminal study essential for the foundational synthesis of the related research. Your literature review draft should provide an objective discussion and synthesis of the related concepts from the previous research findings, any identified contradictory concepts, and underlying related theoretical framework(s) supported by APA formatted reference citations.

Length: 8-10 pages, not including title or reference pages

Outline and sources to date available.

Huckleberry Finn

by

Mark Twain

Introduction

Huckleberry Finn opens with a warning from its author that misinterpreting readers will be shot. Despite the danger, readers have been approaching the novel from such diverse critical perspectives for 120 years that it is both commonly taught and frequently banned, for a variety of reasons. Studying both the novel and its critics with an emphasis on cultural context will help you develop analytical tools essential for navigating this work and other American controversies. This lesson requires you to combine internet historical research with critical reading. You will produce several writing assignments exploring what readers see in Huckleberry Finn and why they see it that way.

Lesson Objectives

• Read and write literary criticism
• Write historical/biographical analysis of non-fiction works
• Define cultural context and describe aspects of others’ contexts as well as their own
• Make inferences and develop the ability to provide convincing evidence to support their inferences

Guiding Questions to think about during reading:

• How does a critic’s cultural context help explain his or her opinions about a book?
• What influences in my cultural context help explain my opinions about a book?
• How does acknowledging my opinions’ origins in the culture around me, and recognizing that changes in culture cause changes in opinions, affect the way I state my opinion?

http://www.pagebypagebooks.com/Mark_Twain/Adventures_of_Huckleberry_Finn/

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINK TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE AUTHOR.

Mark Twain in His Times

Lesson Review

Complete each of the Activities below. Read the directions carefully. Use your own thoughts and words to respond to each question. Do not copy/paste information from the internet.

ACTIVITY #1: STUDENT CRITIQUE(REVIEW)

After reading The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, write a short (200 to 400-word) critique (review), either of the novel in general or of a specific aspect of the novel. Click on this link for information on writing a literary analysis and a literary critique. .pdf file

ACTIVITY #2: COMPARE AND CONTRAST TWO CRITIQUES (REVIEWS) OF HUCKLEBERRY FINN

Reading the reviews of published critics may help you understand and evaluate aspects of a text or book differently.

Click on this link for published critiques of The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn. You are encouraged to locate additional resources on your own.

Huckleberry Finn Contemporary Reviews

a. Conduct research to identify two published critiques (criticism or analysis) of the novel. The critiques and analyses should come from two different authors. List those critiques here, along with the web site where you retrieved the information.

b. Compare and contrast the ideas in these two published critiques or analyses of the novel. Remember, to compare and contrast ideas you must provide at least three similarities and three differences.

ACTIVITY #3: THE CULTURAL CONTEXT OF EACH HUCKLEBERRY FINN CRITICS

a. Identify contemporary historical events and social practices during the life of each critic that you chose, considering race, gender, age and class-based roles in society during that time.

To do this activity, you must explore the cultural context of each critic whose work you chose for your critiques or analysis.

• Resources: The following websites will help you discover some of the historical influences and social practices that may influence critics when they are critiquing or analyzing a book. You are encouraged to locate your own resources as well.

The Time Line of African-American History, 1852-1925, from the American Memory Collection.

Women’s Rights

http://www.infoplease.com/spot/womenstimeline1.html

Duke University’s Ad*Access site, a terrific look at popular culture through advertising, a link through History Matters.

Activity #4: How do social and historical context influence each critic?

Reread the two published critical essays that you chose earlier in this lesson. Make inferences that answer the central question of the unit:

a. “How do the historical and social norms or the time period that you identified in your research seem to influence critics’ views of Huckleberry Finn?”

• Rationale: This activity will help you identify the relationship between a wider culture and an individual’s ideas.

ACTIVITY #5: THE STUDENT’S CULTURAL CONTEXT

a. Identify key elements of your own culture and ccmpare your unique cultural contexts with those of the critics. In other words, how are your cultural norms alike or different than the critics that you chose in your research?

b. In what ways do you believe that the critics’ cultural norms influenced their critiques or analysis?

c. In what ways do your cultural norms influence your own critique and cultural analysis of the book?

Submission guidelines:

Hardcopies of all drafts and workshop worksheets, hardcopy of final draft turned in to me in class and electronic copy of final draft turned in to Canvas on the final due date.

Purpose:

The writer’s purpose is to persuade a specified audience, through a well-developed line of reasoning, sufficient, credible evidence, and the balanced use of rhetorical appeals, to agree with the writer’s argument.

Student learning objectives:

Rhetorical Knowledge

1. Focus on rhetorical situation, audience, and
2. Use voice, tone, format, and structure a
3. Write and read texts written in at least one gen re for an academic discourse

Develop Experience in Writing

1. Learn recursive strategies for generating ideas, revising, editing, and proofread i
2. Learn to critique one’s own work and the work of
3. Develop application of Composing Conventions
   1. Apply gen re conventions, including, structure paragraphing tone mechanics, syntax,
   2. Use appropriate vocabulary, format, and
   3. Use Sources and Evidence
      1. Select appropriate
      2. Consider the relevance of
4. Develop Critical and Creative Thinking
   1. Identify
   2. Present a
   3. Establish a conclusion indicated by the context and that expresses a personal i

Description:

You will write a Toulmin-style argumentative essay in which you argue for your proposed solution to an issue that affects not only your life, but the lives of others as well.

The topic can be one of your choosing; however, you will want to steer clear of topics that you have written about previously and those that are overwritten and researched (Avoid–abortion, legalizing drugs, overpaid athletes, assisted suicide, death penalty, school uniforms, global warming and any other “done-to-death” topics.) The topic should be narrowed sufficiently to fit in the confines of the essay length, and the research for the topic should include both scholarly and general secondary sources.

Source usage:

THIS IS NOT A FULL RESEARCH PAPER! For this essay, use just two-three sources from the UNC library database and you can use one source from a website or a personal interview. Further evidence and examples should come from your experience and observations. Overall, I want to read your argument, not what your sources say, so remember that the sources are there simply to support your opinions and add ethos to your writing.

Documentation format:

Please use MLA format. Remember to cite the information both parenthetically and on the Works Cited page.

Essays without a Works cited page and/or in-text citations will not be accepted.